arXiv AI

Phys-JEPA: Physics-Informed Latent World Models for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 16076v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multivariate forecasting in physical systems requires models that predict coupled temporal variables while preserving meaningful state evolution.

arXiv Machine Learning
5d ago

WorldTS: World Modeling for Multimodal Covariate-aware Time Series Forecasting

WorldTS is a new forecasting framework that models latent dynamics conditioned on multimodal covariates to improve time‑series prediction. It uses a two‑stage training process: first learning latent state dynamics from historical data and covariates, then training a decoder to map predicted latent states back to future observations. Experiments on 21 real‑world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach.

By Yuhan Zhu, Xiangfei Qiu, Hanyin Cheng, Wangmeng Shen, Chenjuan Guo, Bin Yang, Jilin Hu, Christian S. Jensen
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27

JEPA-x: Cross-Predictive Physics Grounding for Forecastable Latent Dynamics

JEPA-x is a cross‑predictive physics grounding method that aligns visual latent dynamics with privileged physical trajectories. By treating visual observations and physical states as two views of the same action‑conditioned trajectory and sharing a predictor, it forces the model to learn a common transition rule for both modalities. The physical branch is only used during training, so deployment incurs no extra cost, and the approach significantly reduces rollout drift and boosts control success across a multi‑task suite.

By Kehan Wen, Ziming Li, Siyuan Luo, Fan Shi
arXiv AI
Sep 18

Physical knowledge on historical data matters more than enforcing physical constraints on the forecast

The paper introduces a Physics Informed Recurrent Neural Network (PIRNN) that simultaneously predicts target time series and unobservable intermediate physical variables, enhancing robustness and interpretability. It adapts to any physical model with multiple equations and variables, demonstrated on groundwater level predictions using the Gardenia model. Experiments on twelve real‑world datasets show PIRNN outperforming several neural network baselines and the Gardenia model, with an ablation study confirming the value of physical knowledge.

By Etienne Lehembre (CA, LIFO), Pascal Audigane (BRGM), Vincent Nguyen (LIFO), Christel Vrain (LIFO, CA), Thi-Bich-Hanh Dao (LIFO, CA)
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 28

SimCast-S2S: An Efficient Generative Model for Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasting via Transfer Learning from Climate Simulations

SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion model designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion pipeline to capture uncertainty, operates in a compact latent space to enable efficient large‑ensemble generation, and leverages transfer learning with low‑rank adaptation to train on limited reanalysis data after pretraining on climate simulations. The model outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with, or surpasses, operational systems such as the ECMWF‑S2S baseline without requiring extensive post‑processing.

By Hiep V. Dang, Antonios Mamalakis
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 4

SimCast-S2S: A Computationally Efficient Diffusion Model for Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasting

SimCast‑S2S is a generative latent‑diffusion framework designed for probabilistic subseasonal‑to‑seasonal precipitation forecasting. It tackles three key challenges: it uses a diffusion‑based generative pipeline for uncertainty quantification, operates in a compact latent space learned by VAEs for efficient large‑ensemble generation, and employs transfer learning with LoRA to overcome limited training data. On reanalysis data, it outperforms deep‑learning baselines and competes with or surpasses state‑of‑the‑art operational systems such as ECMWF‑S2S.

By Hiep V. Dang, Antonios Mamalakis