arXiv AI
Oct 16

Are You Sure Your LLM Is Sure? Repairing and Auditing Confidence

The paper introduces RADAR, a framework for repairing and auditing confidence scores in large language models (LLMs). It separates confidence repair from deployment decisions and from error auditing, proposing Probe‑Anchored Isotonic Calibration (PAIC) for monotone mapping and a prompt‑clustered kernel test for detecting residual errors. Experiments across checkpoints and benchmarks show that richer predictors can improve confidence estimation, but projecting back to a scalar score can lose gains, and lower prediction risk does not always lead to better review decisions.

By Arijit Dey, Bhartendu Kumar, Ramya Hebbalaguppe, Khuushi Maheshwari
arXiv AI
Sep 25

Sequential knowledge editing breaks a model's ability to tell good evidence from bad, without costing it accuracy

The paper investigates how sequential knowledge editing can degrade a language model’s ability to discern reliable evidence from unreliable evidence without affecting overall accuracy. Using a conservatively tuned LoRA on Qwen2.5‑7B‑Instruct, the authors show that after 1,000 edits the model’s arbitration score for untouched facts drops by 36%, leading to higher error rates on its most confident decisions, while MMLU accuracy remains unchanged. The study also finds that in some model‑method combinations, sequential edits can reduce MMLU to chance levels even though edit success and locality remain perfect.

By Atul Anand
arXiv Computation and Language
Oct 12

AMLworld-Compact: Importance-Weighted Downsampling for Cost-Effective LLM Evaluation and Error Diagnosis

AMLworld-Compact introduces an importance‑weighted downsampling protocol for evaluating large language models on AMLworld’s test splits, retaining all illicit transactions while sampling benign ones from supervised‑score strata. The HT‑Coreset method reduces evaluation targets by 271× on HI‑Small and 611× on LI‑Small, providing unbiased confusion‑count estimates with exact recall and ratio estimates for precision and F1. Experiments with boosted‑tree strata and Graph Feature Preprocessor features show lower F1 RMSE compared to uniform sampling, and audit tools reveal that lexical checks do not reliably indicate correctness of model outputs.

By Natapong Nitarach, Phume Ngampornsukswadi, Pittawat Taveekitworachai, Surapon Nonesung, Warit Sirichotedumrong, Kunat Pipatanakul
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 22

Big Claims, Small Margins: Do Reported GraphLLM Gains Survive Simple Baselines?

The paper evaluates whether recent LLM-based node classification methods on text‑attributed graphs truly outperform simple baselines. By tuning four baseline models on the same data splits and comparing them to the best reported LLM results, the authors find that while some gains are modest (e.g., Correct & Smooth trailing by 2.3–2.8 percentage points), several reported improvements remain significant. They also highlight evaluation risks such as test‑set hyperparameter tuning, misuse of test‑pool labels, undisclosed baseline reuse, and inconsistencies across papers.

By Michal Podstawski