arXiv AI By Weihan Li, Tianshi Zheng, Yangqiu Song, Ginny Y. Wong, Simon See

ULTRADISCOVERY: Abductive Exploration in an Interconnected, Epistemically Open Universe

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ULTRADISCOVERY is a benchmark that tests abductive exploration in an epistemically open, interconnected universe. It features five domains where agents must revise an initial theory and predict outcomes of unseen cross‑domain interventions, with a $2 imes 2$ design manipulating representation openness and evidence alignment. Experiments show that agents struggle to compose evidence into transferable representations, especially when the representation is open, and that even with aids exact predictions are rare without large budgets.

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