arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 25

TopoCast: A Topological Fidelity Framework for Evaluating Transformer-Based Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 25439v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep learning-based models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in Time Series Forecasting (TSF), yet their evaluation remains dominated by pointwise error metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), which quantify numerical accuracy but overlook structural properties of the forecast signal, including recurrent dynamics, oscillatory behavior, and phase alignment.

By Sandeepa Weerasekara, Sandareka Wickramanayake
arXiv AI
Sep 1

Frequency Selective Neural Networks as a Foundation Architecture for Time Series Learning

The paper introduces the Frequency Selective Neural Network (FSNN), a new foundation architecture for time‑series learning that embeds advanced signal‑processing mathematics into its neural topology. By using a fully differentiable Wiener‑like filter bank optimized with complex‑domain backpropagation, FSNN autonomously discovers and isolates the precise physical modes of a given task, thereby avoiding the spectral entanglement that plagues CNNs, RNNs, and Transformers. Extensive evaluations show that FSNN achieves state‑of‑the‑art predictive performance, attaining 77.0 % average accuracy on the 10 multivariate UEA datasets and leading all major metrics on the imbalanced PTB‑XL ECG benchmark, while converging directly on physically meaningful frequency bands such as the cardiac QRS complex.

By Hui Huang, Ye Sun, Shiyan Hu
arXiv AI
Jul 23

Structured Latent Space Modeling over Multi-Scale Temporal Patches for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2607. 19404v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multivariate time series encode structural patterns that unfold across multiple temporal scales, yet most forecasting backbones treat learned representations as transient byproducts of prediction, leaving the organizational geometry of these patterns underexploited.

By Xingsheng Chen, Deyu Yi, Siu-Ming Yiu
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 25

Beyond Compression: Training Latent Representations for Stable Long-Horizon Rollout in Neural Surrogate Solvers

The paper investigates why latent neural surrogate solvers, which compress physical system dynamics into a lower‑dimensional space, often fail during long‑horizon autoregressive rollouts. It demonstrates that training the latent representation only for reconstruction leads to instability, and proposes a set of training interventions—Koopman operator learning, Hamming noise injection, and multi‑step rollout fine‑tuning—that align the latent space with long‑horizon forecasting. These interventions reduce long‑rollout error by about 40 % and achieve accuracy comparable to full‑resolution models while using far fewer floating‑point operations and GPU memory, enabling stable extrapolation in mesoscale crystal‑plasticity simulations of high‑cycle fatigue.

By Andreas E. Robertson, Ashley T. Lenau, John D. Shimanek, Benjamin A. Jasperson, Vivek Oommen, David L. Damm, Krishna Garikipati, Remi Dingreville