arXiv AI By Jungseob Lee, Jaehyung Seo, Heuiseok Lim

The Hallucination Signal Is a Mean Shift: Why Simple Probes Suffice

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The study shows that hallucination detection in large language models is largely driven by a single mean‑shift component in hidden states. Across three 7B‑scale models and multiple datasets, removing this direction reduces detection to chance, while a simple L2‑regularized logistic regression achieves high AUROC (0.952) and outperforms more complex probe architectures. The authors introduce LayerMix, a multi‑layer aggregation method that matches oracle‑layer performance without requiring oracle access, demonstrating that apparent probe complexity stems from high‑dimensional covariance estimation rather than non‑linearity.

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