arXiv:2607. 19522v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While machine learning-based weather models hold significant promise, they struggle to predict the detailed structure of large-scale weather systems such as cyclonic storms.
By Sonia Cromp, Satya Sai Srinath Namburi GNVV, Youran Wang, Grace Kisslinger, Frederic Sala, James Booth, Allegra LeGrande
arXiv:2609.38632v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Recent probabilistic weather forecasters train stochastic predictors with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to generate each ensemble memb...
By Joonhyeong Park, Giung Nam, Hyungi Lee, Kyunghyun Cho, Byoungwoo Park, Juho Lee
arXiv:2606. 14570v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Emulators provide a cost-effective alternative to regional climate models (RCMs) by capturing their dynamical downscaling function.
By Mikel N. Legasa, Antoine Doury, Achille Gellens, Redouane Lguensat, Clara Naldesi, Soulivanh Thao, Mathieu Vrac
arXiv:2608. 04327v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Explicit onshore tsunami inundation forecasting can improve public risk awareness, but deterministically predicted inundation boundaries under highly uncertain conditions, such as near-field tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes, may falsely imply safety outside the boundaries.
By Yusuke Oishi, Takashi Furumura, Fumihiko Imamura
arXiv:2605. 20494v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Reliable assessment of tropical cyclone risk is limited by the short and spatially uneven historical record, especially for rare, high-intensity landfalls that dominate insured loss.
By Jennifer Nakamura, Upmanu Lall
The paper introduces Influpaint, a denoising diffusion probabilistic model adapted for forecasting influenza incidence. By representing influenza seasons as spatiotemporal images and training on a hybrid dataset of surveillance and simulated trajectories, the model learns a rich distribution of disease dynamics and performs forecasting as a conditional generation task. In retrospective and real‑time evaluations, Influpaint produces realistic, diverse epidemic trajectories and achieves forecast accuracy competitive with leading ensemble methods, especially when trained with 30% surveillance and 70% simulated data.
By Joseph Lemaitre, Justin Lessler