SurgeGen is a two‑stage generative diffusion framework that synthesizes storm surge scenarios conditioned on continuous storm parameters. The first stage produces a coarse baseline surge estimate, which then conditions a diffusion model that refines the output to capture realistic spatial patterns and variability. The method can generate diverse, realistic surge scenarios both within and beyond the training distribution.
By Shunan Zheng, John J. Hasenbein
arXiv:2607. 17037v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: High-resolution atmospheric data are required to resolve mesoscale and localized meteorological structures, however such datasets remain limited in many regions of the world.
By Evangelia Rafaela Frastali, Achyut Paudel, Maryam Golbazi, Frank Liu
The study compares the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) dynamical model with an unpaired diffusion-based generative model for downscaling extreme precipitation events up to three weeks ahead. Both models outperform raw European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts forecasts when evaluated against Swiss rain gauge-radar observations, but their strengths differ by atmospheric regime: WRF excels in a multicell, non‑stationary event, while the diffusion model performs more consistently and better in a stationary supercell event.
By Mauricio Lima, Marika Koukoula, Romain Pilon, Monika Feldmann, Erwan Koch, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tom Beucler
arXiv:2606. 14570v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Emulators provide a cost-effective alternative to regional climate models (RCMs) by capturing their dynamical downscaling function.
By Mikel N. Legasa, Antoine Doury, Achille Gellens, Redouane Lguensat, Clara Naldesi, Soulivanh Thao, Mathieu Vrac
arXiv:2609.37038v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Precipitation nowcasting demands accurate short-term forecasts under strong spatiotemporal variability. Diffusion models are well suited to modeling...
By Haoran Xu, Xingzhuo Guo, Yuchen Zhang, Jincheng Zhong, Jianmin Wang, Mingsheng Long
arXiv:2605. 30184v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While AI weather models excel at short-to-medium range forecasts (up to 15 days), they frequently suffer from ill-defined "instabilities" when rolled out over longer horizons.
By Fanny Lehmann, Firat Ozdemir, Yun Cheng, Torsten Hoefler, Sebastian Schemm, Benedikt Soja, Siddhartha Mishra