arXiv Machine Learning By Dongchan Cho, Jiho Han, Keumyeong Kang, Minsang Kim, Honggyu Ryu, Namsoon Jung

Structured Temporal Causality for Interpretable Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection

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Structured Temporal Causality for Interpretable Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection introduces OracleAD, an unsupervised framework that encodes each variable’s past into a causal embedding to jointly predict the present and reconstruct the input window. The embeddings are projected via self‑attention into a shared latent space, capturing dynamic spatial relationships that are aligned to a Stable Latent Structure (SLS) representing normal-state relationships. Anomalies are detected through a dual scoring mechanism based on prediction error and deviation from the SLS, allowing fine‑grained diagnosis and root‑cause identification at the variable level.

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The operational integrity of complex industrial systems relies on precise anomaly detection and diagnosis. The vast majority of existing methods narrowly focus on capturing temporal similarities of representations, often overlooking the disruption of internal causal relationships, which characterizes system failures and latent anomalies.