arXiv Machine Learning

JAPE: Joint Anomaly Prediction and Intrinsic Explanation in Multivariate Time Series

arXiv:2608. 11801v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multivariate time-series anomaly prediction aims to identify whether and when anomalies will occur over a future horizon from historical observations.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 24

CAST: Context- and Anomaly Structure-Conditioned Time Series Anomaly Generation

CAST is a framework for generating anomalous time series that addresses the scarcity and heterogeneity of anomaly data. It uses a two‑stage approach: pretraining on abundant normal data to learn system dynamics, then finetuning with anomaly structure representations to capture diverse anomaly morphologies. Experiments on real‑world datasets show that CAST outperforms existing methods in both generation quality and downstream task performance.

By Haochen Zhang, Jie Peng, Songyuan Sui, Yu-Chao Huang, Xiangqi Zhu, Tianlong Chen
arXiv AI
Jun 2

AnomSeer: Reinforcing Multimodal LLMs to Reason for Time-Series Anomaly Detection

arXiv:2602. 08868v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Time-series anomaly detection (TSAD) with multimodal large language models (MLLMs) is an emerging area, yet a persistent challenge remains: MLLMs rely on coarse time-series heuristics but struggle with multi-dimensional, detailed reasoning, which is vital for understanding complex time-series data.

By Junru Zhang, Lang Feng, Haoran Shi, Xu Guo, Han Yu, Yabo Dong, Duanqing Xu
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 15

Exploring Zero-Shot Foundation Models for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection

arXiv:2607. 12454v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection (MTSAD) is essential for reliability and safety in domains such as industrial process monitoring and financial risk management, yet conventional approaches rely on application-specific models that are costly to train and hard to scale.

By Martin Uray, Saverio Messineo, Roland Kwitt, Stefan Huber
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 23

Can We Predict Anomaly Detection Performance from Embedding-Space Geometry?

The paper investigates whether the performance of anomaly detection systems can be predicted without labeled anomalies. For kNN-based detectors, it derives a lower bound on AUC that links detection performance to the separation and variance of inlier and outlier scores, and uses this to analyze how density variation, intrinsic dimensionality, and domain mismatch affect score variability. The authors introduce pseudo‑anomaly probes that provide a reference for estimating relative score separation, and demonstrate through experiments on DCASE benchmarks that these probes enable anomaly‑free model selection to outperform conventional development‑set selection, especially under domain shift.

By Kevin Wilkinghoff, Zheng-Hua Tan
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 12

ChronoSSM: Training for Temporally Aware Representations in Autoregressive State Space Models

arXiv:2608. 10120v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern sequence models, from Transformers to State Space Models, have enabled powerful generative modeling across diverse domains, yet they are typically trained to predict what happens while treating when it happens as a secondary concern.

By Adrien Schoen, Nachiketa Ratnakar Patil, Arjun Bhagoji, Francesco Bronzino