arXiv Machine Learning By Xiao Wang, Changjian Chen, Rongwen Li, Hongwu Liu, Kun Fang, Zhuo Tang

StationPDE: Station-Oriented Surface PDE Learning for Multi-Station Multivariate Weather Forecasting

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

StationPDE is a station-oriented surface PDE learning model designed for multi-station multivariate weather forecasting. It builds a terrain-aware continuous surface field from discrete station observations and separates its physical evolution into surface wind transport and upper-air inference, the latter approximating missing upper-air effects via learnable horizontal diffusion. The model also includes a data-driven diffusion branch and an adaptive router to combine forecasts, achieving a 9.6% average MSE reduction over state-of-the-art baselines on Weather2K and MeteoNet datasets.

Machine-generated by The Flow from the publisher's headline and feed description — not written or checked by a human. The full article lives at arXiv Machine Learning.

arXiv AI
2d ago

Benchmarking Generative Models for Weather Data Assimilation on Real Station Observations

This study introduces the first controlled benchmark of generative models for weather data assimilation using real station observations from 11,849 NOAA MADIS stations across the U.S. It evaluates key design choices—diffusion vs. flow matching, pixel vs. latent-space formulations, and inference-time conditioning strategies—against a classical 3D-Var baseline. The benchmark finds that learned generative priors and full-gradient guidance improve RMSE over ERA5, while other design variations offer minimal benefit, especially under sparse observation conditions.

By Ruizhe Huang, Qidong Yang, Jonathan Giezendanner, Sherrie Wang
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 4

WeatherNext 3: Increasing resolution and performance of global weather models with raw observations

WeatherNext 3 is a new AI‑driven global weather model that improves both spatial and temporal resolution by generating hourly forecasts at 0.1° resolution, matching the best physics‑based models. It incorporates low‑latency geostationary satellite data and learns to predict satellite‑derived precipitation, tropical cyclones, and station observations, enabling 2 m temperature and dewpoint predictions anywhere and anytime. By directly using raw observations instead of relying solely on analysis data, WeatherNext 3 sets a new state‑of‑the‑art for probabilistic medium‑range forecasting skill.

By Stephan Rasp, Boris Babenko, Dominic Masters, Andrew El-Kadi, Samier Merchant, Guy Shalev, Ilan Price, Fred Zyda, Remi Lam, Sasha Shysheya, Matthew Willson, Stratis Markou, Shreya Agrawal, Suhani Vora, Mohammed Alewi Hassen, Sunny Mak, Tom R. Andersson, Megan Bela, Akib Uddin, Nofar Peled Levi, Ben Gaiarin, Ferran Alet, Aaron Bell, Peter Battaglia, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 13

Earth observation embeddings are effective sub-grid descriptors for probabilistic weather downscaling

arXiv:2608. 12271v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Global weather reanalyses and forecasts resolve the evolving atmospheric state on coarse grids, but site-specific applications require predictions at arbitrary locations where near-surface conditions also depend on unresolved terrain and land-surface properties.

By Pedro Sousa (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Will Tebbutt (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge), Sadiq Jaffer (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Robin Young (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Anil Madhavapeddy (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Richard E. Turner (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge)
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 18

Benchmarking Physics-Informed Time-Series Models for Operational Global Station Weather Forecasting

arXiv:2406. 14399v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The development of Time-Series Forecasting (TSF) models is often constrained by the lack of comprehensive datasets, especially in Global Station Weather Forecasting (GSWF), where existing datasets are small, temporally short, and spatially sparse.

By Tao Han, Zhibin Wen, Zhenghao Chen, Dazhao Du, Song Guo, Lei Bai