arXiv:2402. 06635v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We show that a deep neural network (DNN) trained to construct a stochastic discount factor (SDF) admits an additive decomposition separating nonlinear characteristic discovery from the pricing rule that aggregates them.
By Bryan Kelly, Boris Kuznetsov, Semyon Malamud, Yuan Zhang
arXiv:2603.01820v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Forecasting financial asset returns is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios, non-stationarity and heavy-tailed distributions. We ben...
By Adir Saly-Kaufmann, Kieran Wood, Jan-Peter Calliess, Stefan Zohren
The paper examines whether benign overfitting—where highly overparameterized models still predict well—occurs in equity return prediction. It finds a double‑descent risk curve for ridgeless models and shows that while ridge regularization slightly improves performance, the advantage vanishes at high parameter‑to‑observation ratios. Ultimately, both models fail to beat a simple historical average, indicating that standard equity predictors lack genuine forecasting power even with flexible machine learning methods.
By Hui Guo, Jiawei Huang, Runze Li, Yan Yu
The paper introduces the first multi‑horizon benchmark for forecasting resale prices of second‑hand electronics, comparing eleven statistical and deep learning models on a large Polish marketplace dataset covering 100+ smartphone and laptop models from January 2022 to March 2025. Across horizons from 1 to 365 days, N‑BEATS consistently outperforms all statistical baselines, achieving an 8.51% MAPE at 365 days versus 14.94% for the best baseline—a 43% reduction—while all models converge to about 0.72% MAPE for short horizons. A single N‑BEATS model trained for the 365‑day horizon generalizes to all shorter horizons, eliminating the need for horizon‑specific models, and N‑BEATS and N‑HiTS show superior hyperparameter stability.
By Mateusz Buczy\'nski, Micha{\l} Wo\'zniak, Konrad Kaczy\'nski, Anna Wr\'oblewska, Sebastian Kuk
arXiv:2605.28853v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Portfolio optimization in real-world financial markets is notoriously difficult due to non-stationarity, noisy data, and high transaction cos...
By Rahul Fernandes, Travis Desell
arXiv:2608. 27076v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Algorithmic trading now represents a market exceeding $20 billion, where even marginal gains in signal robustness can translate into economically significant returns.
By Joshua Le Grice