arXiv:2607. 16259v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pretrained models are typically ranked on multi-task leaderboards to assess their effectiveness across diverse tasks.
By Bitya Neuhof, Yuval Benjamini
The paper introduces a low‑rank framework for ranking large language models (LLMs) on task‑specific benchmarks using sparse pairwise comparisons. By modeling the task‑by‑model ability matrix as low rank, the method shares information across related tasks while preserving task‑specific differences, and it provides uncertainty‑aware ranking through debiased estimators and simultaneous confidence sets. Experiments on synthetic data and the Chatbot Arena benchmark demonstrate improved sample efficiency and tighter, better‑calibrated ranking certificates, especially in the sparse comparison regime typical of real LLM evaluations.
By Jiachun Li, David Simchi-Levi, Will Wei Sun
The paper discusses how to quantify statistical uncertainty for aggregate performance metrics in machine learning benchmarks, focusing on methods such as bootstrapping, Bayesian hierarchical modeling, and visualizing task weightings with standard errors. It demonstrates that these techniques can uncover insights—for example, revealing that a model may dominate specific task types even if its overall performance is poor. The authors apply their approach to the Visual Task Adaptation Benchmark (VTAB) to illustrate its practical usefulness.
By Rachel Longjohn, Giri Gopalan, Emily Casleton
arXiv:2601.13885v2 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) has proven effective for efficient LLM evaluation on multiple-choice benchmarks, but modern LLM evaluatio...
By Esma Balk{\i}r, Alice Pernthaller, Marco Basaldella, Jos\'e Hern\'andez-Orallo, Nigel Collier
arXiv:2601. 21817v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Evaluating large language models (LLMs) on open-ended tasks without ground-truth labels is increasingly done via the LLM-as-a-judge paradigm.
By Mingyuan Xu, Xinzi Tan, Jiawei Wu, Doudou Zhou
Agent evaluations increasingly benchmark LLMs, but rankings can be swayed by evaluation conditions such as scaffolds or tasks, making reliability claim‑dependent. A Bayesian variance‑decomposition framework applied to 22 benchmarks shows that reliability varies with the measurement goal: fixed model‑scaffold systems rank reliably, while underlying‑model rankings are less stable. Scaffold choice can alter conclusions, and adding more tasks only modestly improves reliability when scaffold coverage is limited; however, pooling diverse benchmarks can substantially raise cross‑task ranking reliability and reduce cost.
By Michael Hardy, Ruhana Azam, Anka Reuel, Mykel Kochenderfer, Sanmi Koyejo