arXiv Machine Learning

Quantifying Ranking Uncertainty in LLM Benchmarks

arXiv:2607. 16259v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Pretrained models are typically ranked on multi-task leaderboards to assess their effectiveness across diverse tasks.

arXiv Statistics ML
Sep 4

Low Rank for Rank: Uncertainty-Aware Task-Specific LLM Ranking under Sparse Pairwise Comparisons

The paper introduces a low‑rank framework for ranking large language models (LLMs) on task‑specific benchmarks using sparse pairwise comparisons. By modeling the task‑by‑model ability matrix as low rank, the method shares information across related tasks while preserving task‑specific differences, and it provides uncertainty‑aware ranking through debiased estimators and simultaneous confidence sets. Experiments on synthetic data and the Chatbot Arena benchmark demonstrate improved sample efficiency and tighter, better‑calibrated ranking certificates, especially in the sparse comparison regime typical of real LLM evaluations.

By Jiachun Li, David Simchi-Levi, Will Wei Sun
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 14

Statistical Uncertainty Quantification for Aggregate Performance Metrics in Machine Learning Benchmarks

The paper discusses how to quantify statistical uncertainty for aggregate performance metrics in machine learning benchmarks, focusing on methods such as bootstrapping, Bayesian hierarchical modeling, and visualizing task weightings with standard errors. It demonstrates that these techniques can uncover insights—for example, revealing that a model may dominate specific task types even if its overall performance is poor. The authors apply their approach to the Visual Task Adaptation Benchmark (VTAB) to illustrate its practical usefulness.

By Rachel Longjohn, Giri Gopalan, Emily Casleton
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 4

Contamination Inflates Scores but Rarely Reorders Large Language Model Leaderboards

The paper investigates how benchmark contamination—leakage of test items into training data—affects large language model (LLM) leaderboards. By comparing original test items with semantically equivalent paraphrases, the authors measure contamination as a violation of anchor-item invariance and find that it inflates absolute scores but rarely changes model rankings. Across 47 public models and 74 finetuned models on four benchmarks, the rank correlation between standard and paraphrase-controlled leaderboards is 0.997, with only a handful of cases showing differential contamination that could alter rankings.

By Xingyao Xiao (Stanford University), Yihong Cheng (City University of Macau)
arXiv AI
6d ago

Accounting for Bias Enables Sustainable LLM Evaluation

The paper argues that the current LLM-as-a-judge evaluation method, which compensates for systematic measurement bias by increasing the number of comparisons, is statistically unsound and computationally wasteful. It identifies that treating LLM judges as neutral ignores documented biases such as position bias, verbosity bias, judge severity, and self‑enhancement. The authors propose a unified latent variable framework that jointly models pairwise and ordinal data while explicitly correcting for these confounders, enabling reliable rankings with far fewer comparisons and negligible additional compute.

By Harshita Katoch, David Antony Selby, Gerrit Gro{\ss}mann, Sebastian Vollmer
arXiv AI
2d ago

Agent Evaluation Reliability: More Tasks Won't (Always) Fix An Agent Leaderboard

Agent evaluations increasingly benchmark LLMs, but rankings can be swayed by evaluation conditions such as scaffolds or tasks, making reliability claim‑dependent. A Bayesian variance‑decomposition framework applied to 22 benchmarks shows that reliability varies with the measurement goal: fixed model‑scaffold systems rank reliably, while underlying‑model rankings are less stable. Scaffold choice can alter conclusions, and adding more tasks only modestly improves reliability when scaffold coverage is limited; however, pooling diverse benchmarks can substantially raise cross‑task ranking reliability and reduce cost.

By Michael Hardy, Ruhana Azam, Anka Reuel, Mykel Kochenderfer, Sanmi Koyejo
arXiv AI
Jun 10

RankLLM: Weighted Ranking of LLMs by Quantifying Question Difficulty

arXiv:2602. 12424v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Benchmarks establish a standardized evaluation framework to systematically assess the performance of large language models (LLMs), facilitating objective comparisons and driving advancements in the field.

By Ziqian Zhang, Xingjian Hu, Yue Huang, Kai Zhang, Ruoxi Chen, Yixin Liu, Qingsong Wen, Kaidi Xu, Xiangliang Zhang, Neil Zhenqiang Gong, Lichao Sun