arXiv:2602. 13010v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate production forecasts are essential for the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid.
Machine-generated by The Flow from the publisher's headline and feed description — not written or checked by a human. The full article lives at arXiv Machine Learning.
The paper benchmarks a range of AI methods—conventional ML, ensemble learning, deep neural networks, recurrent architectures, Transformers, graph models, and hybrid ensemble deep learning—on three renewable energy datasets, including large‑scale wave energy converter (WEC) data and wind farm SCADA measurements. Tree ensembles, particularly Extra Trees, outperform traditional ML and neural predictors on structured WEC layout data, achieving a 63.7% MAE reduction over an MLP baseline. Spatial‑temporal graph networks (STGCN) and an RF‑BiLSTM hybrid further improve forecasting accuracy, with the hybrid model reaching an MAE of 150.5 kW, a 75% reduction over a standalone LSTM and 10% better than STGCN. The study concludes that no single architecture dominates; randomized ensembles excel for structured surrogate modeling, graph networks for explicit spatial interactions, and hybrid recurrent ensembles for combined nonlinear tabular and temporal dynamics.
arXiv:2606. 02663v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advances in machine learning have produced probabilistic weather forecasting models comparable to state-of-the-art numerical weather predictors.
The paper benchmarks a range of AI methods—conventional ML, ensemble learning, deep neural networks, recurrent architectures, Transformers, graph models, and hybrid ensemble deep learning—on renewable energy datasets. Tree ensembles, especially Extra Trees, outperform other models on structured wave energy converter (WEC) layout data, reducing MAE by about 63.7% relative to an MLP baseline. The RF BiLSTM hybrid delivers the best overall forecasting accuracy for wind farm SCADA data, cutting MAE by roughly 75% compared to a standalone LSTM and surpassing STGCN by about 10%.
PROSWIN is a probabilistic machine learning model that forecasts hourly solar wind speed at Earth up to four days ahead, using solar images and magnetograms processed by a deep neural network and distributional regression. It introduces a prediction score metric that rewards both timeline and high‑speed solar wind peak accuracy, achieving well‑calibrated uncertainties and superior performance on 14 years of data compared to existing models. The study highlights the importance of the 171 Å channel and demonstrates that probabilistic forecasts outperform single‑value models for both overall timelines and peak events.
arXiv:2606. 09941v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Surface winds can vary substantially from one minute to the next, so there is scope for studying its variation on this fine time scale.
arXiv:2609.38632v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent probabilistic weather forecasters train stochastic predictors with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to generate each ensemble memb...