Planting a Latent Variable in Natural-Looking Text: a More Realistic Test of Belief States in LLMs and Their Link to Concept Geometry

The paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) maintain belief states—probability distributions over latent variables—by embedding a controllable latent variable into natural text. An LLM teacher generates ordinary text while subtly steering it along one of eight sparse autoencoder directions, which follow a ring-shaped Markov chain. A small transformer trained on this data successfully tracks the Bayesian posterior of the planted variable and arranges the eight states on a ring in the same order as the Markov chain, suggesting a link between concept geometry and latent variable dynamics.

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