Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction: Embedding PDE Consistency into Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification for Neural Operators
Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction (PI‑CP) embeds PDE residuals into the nonconformity score of split conformal prediction, yielding distribution‑free prediction intervals with provable coverage that adapt spatially to physics violations. The method demonstrates consistent 89‑91% coverage across six physics scenarios, outperforming MC Dropout and Deep Ensembles, while Fourier Neural Operators (FNO) achieve superior accuracy over CNN and DeepONet. Additionally, the authors prove that FNO’s translation equivariance limits its ability to solve PDEs with Dirichlet boundary conditions, and show that adding coordinate channels can reduce error by up to 63×.
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