The article introduces a decision‑analytic variable selection algorithm that optimizes clinical prediction models by balancing predictive performance against the costs and harms of measuring variables. It exhaustively compares net benefit across all predictor combinations, with a backward‑elimination extension for high‑dimensional data, and selects variables only when their added predictive value outweighs their measurement costs. The method, implemented in the R package NBvarsel, was demonstrated on simulated data and three real case studies, producing parsimonious models that maintained discrimination and calibration while reducing unnecessary clinical burden.
By Lasai Barre\~nada, Andrew Vickers, Laure Wynants, Bieke Tack, Dirk Timmerman, Ewout Steyerberg, Ben Van Calster
arXiv:2509.24608v2 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Classification models typically predict a binary outcome and use one or more decision thresholds to produce a classification or inform a clinical d...
By Louise AC Millard, Matthew Sperrin, Richard M Martin, Peter A Flach
arXiv:2605.18147v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Predictive models are central to credit risk management, where the accuracy of default-probability and loss estimates affects the profitability of...
By Bart Baesens, Andreas Goethals, Stefan Lessmann, Simon De Vos, Cristi\'an Bravo, David Martens, Victor Medina-Olivares, Christophe Mues, Maria Oskarsd\'ottir, Seppe vanden Broucke, Tony Van Gestel, Tim Verdonck, Wouter Verbeke
arXiv:2606. 12006v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting time-to-event outcomes such as mortality is a fundamental task in clinical decision-making, commonly addressed through survival analysis.
By Minh-Khoi Pham, Luca Cotugno, Alina Sirbu, Tai Tan Mai, Martin Crane, Marija Bezbradica
The study evaluates a leakage‑controlled, structure‑preserving augmentation method—train‑only asymmetric Bernoulli perturbation—on Bangla symptom‑based disease prediction. Using 725 unique profiles across 85 diseases and 172 binary symptoms, the authors compare this augmentation against duplication, oversampling, class weighting, and SMOTEN, finding that boosted‑tree models (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost) gain substantial accuracy improvements while Bernoulli Naive Bayes shows limited benefit after statistical correction. A Hamming‑distance audit reveals that most held‑out profiles are very close to training data, and robustness tests confirm that XGBoost and LightGBM maintain gains even when one‑bit disease profiles are purged.
By Sabah Nushra, Shovan Samanta Turzo, Moinul Hossain, Md Kishor Morol
arXiv:2609.13192v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: This study compares traditional machine learning models and Large Language Model (LLM)-generated rule-based systems for heart disease prediction using...
By Feisal Alaswad, Batoul Aljaddouh, Maher Alrahhal, Wafaa Al Nassan, Talal Bonn