arXiv Machine Learning By Xianghui Meng, Yujing Zhang, Jionghao Lin

One Mastery Threshold Does Not Fit All Knowledge Tracing Models

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The study investigates how a single mastery threshold can produce divergent outcomes across different knowledge tracing (KT) models. By evaluating six KT models on four datasets with thresholds ranging from 0.50 to 0.99, the authors find that Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) is relatively insensitive to threshold changes, whereas neural models become increasingly selective as thresholds rise. The optimal threshold varies widely across models and instructional settings, and stricter thresholds can disproportionately limit advancement for weaker students.

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