arXiv AI By Haowei Qian

Nous: An Attempt to Extract and Inject the Cognition Behind Prediction-Market Behavior

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arXiv:2606. 13038v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As LLM agents proliferate in prediction markets and collective decision-making, they risk a cognitive monoculture: agents built on shared foundation models produce correlated forecasts, and recent measurement finds frontier-model errors correlated at r ~ 0.

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arXiv AI
Sep 16

Do LLMs Have Values? A Quantitative Analysis and Alignment Framework for Values in Large Language Models

The paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) possess intrinsic value systems and how to quantify and align them. By projecting responses from 106 LLMs and 95,000 human survey profiles into a shared sociological space, the authors confirm that LLMs do have values, though these values form a concentrated, idealized core rather than mirroring human diversity. They introduce the Prior-Environment-Cognition (PEC) framework to mathematically define value expression and propose an adaptive Alignment Prescription that identifies minimal interventions—ranging from prompts to targeted parameter updates—to steer LLM values efficiently without harming general performance.

By Keqing Zhang, Jingyu Chen, Yufan Liu, Yongqiang Zhu, Nai Ding, Lai Jiang, Congyan Lang, Bing Li, Weiming Hu
arXiv AI
Jul 10

What LLM Forecasters Know but Don't Say: Probing Internal Representations for Calibration and Faithfulness

arXiv:2607. 08046v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models fine-tuned for forecasting can be accurate yet poorly calibrated, and their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning may not faithfully reflect the evidence behind a forecast.

By Rapha\"el Sarfati, Pratyush Ranjan Tiwari, Siddharth Boppana, Christopher J. Earls, Srikar Varadaraj, Eric Ho
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 5

Moral Sensitivity in LLMs: A Tiered Evaluation of Contextual Bias via Behavioral Profiling and Mechanistic Interpretability

arXiv:2605. 03217v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings that require nuanced ethical reasoning, yet existing bias evaluations treat model outputs as simply "biased" or "unbiased.

By Yash Aggarwal, Atmika Gorti, Vinija Jain, Aman Chadha, Krishnaprasad Thirunarayan, Manas Gaur
arXiv AI
Oct 7

How High Is 0.6? Floors, Ceilings, and Headroom in Interpretability Probing

The paper argues that probe scores lack intrinsic meaning and should be interpreted relative to two reference points: a floor (what simple inputs predict) and a ceiling (what the full input predicts). The difference, called headroom, indicates the range where a probe can reveal that a model computes beyond what the input already provides. Experiments on transformers and real models show that headroom can vanish when the target no longer depends on hidden variables or when the input no longer reveals them, and that some previously claimed representations are largely explained by the input text alone.

By Pranjal Garg
arXiv AI
4d ago

Stochastic CHAOS: Why Deterministic Inference Kills, and Distributional Variability Is the Heartbeat of Artifical Cognition

arXiv:2601.07239v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As l...

By Tanmay Joshi, Shourya Aggarwal, Anusa Saha, Aadi Pandey, Shreyash Dhoot, Vighnesh Rai, Raxit Goswami, Aman Chadha, Vinija Jain, Amitava Das