arXiv AI
6d ago

Learning Scientific Trajectories to Predict Future Biomedical Discoveries

ForeSCITE is a framework that uses large language models to analyze temporal patterns in biomedical conclusions. It clusters published conclusions, estimates a direction that separates earlier from more recent findings within each cluster, and projects conclusion embeddings along these directions. The projected coordinates are decoded into natural‑language hypotheses, and retrospective evaluations show that ForeSCITE expands semantic coverage, introduces novel biomedical entity pairs, and identifies plausible CAR‑T hypotheses that experts deem biologically relevant.

By Chia-Hsuan Chang, Brian Ondov, Jiang Lv, Lan Jiang, Yunmai Wang, Haerin Song, Xueqing Peng, Qiaozhu Mei, Xiaolei Su, Hua Xu
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 18

Pretrained Medical Representations for the Practical Screening of Drug Repositioning Candidates

The paper introduces a unified pre‑training framework for medical representations that incorporates hierarchical sub‑token aggregation, partial masking, and cross‑reference mechanisms to better capture the structure of medical codes. The resulting model outperforms existing BERT‑based approaches on pre‑training tasks and downstream clinical predictions, such as dementia onset and hospitalization. An in‑silico drug repositioning study for Alzheimer’s disease demonstrates the framework’s ability to rediscover known drugs and prioritize new hypotheses without external literature, establishing a workflow for hypothesis generation and prioritization based on observational data.

By Yuhei Fujioka, Daitaro Misawa, Shingo Fukuma
arXiv Machine Learning
4d ago

Do Language Models Know What Compelling Scientific Evidence Looks Like?

The paper introduces EDB-Bio, a benchmark of 96,000 episodes drawn from real biological studies—drug‑perturbation transcriptomics, CRISPR screens, and GWAS—to test whether language models can weigh empirical evidence and predict hypothesis truth. Initial results show that both open‑weight and frontier models are systematically underconfident, matching a trivial base‑rate forecaster in Brier score, but post‑training with proper scoring rules improves calibration and discrimination. In a downstream experiment‑selection task, a calibrated model (Ibis0) outperforms the best frontier model by 2.5×, and Bayes‑factor analysis reveals how models update beliefs, align with expert relevance judgments, and expose biases.

By Conor Igoe, Gabriel Grand, Zane Koch, Albert Bou, Eli Moss, Michaela M. Hinks, Samuel G. Rodriques, Andrew White, Siddharth Narayanan
arXiv AI
Sep 7

Hakken: Predicting future discoveries to fill the gaps in today's knowledge

Hakken is a domain‑agnostic system that predicts and explains future scientific discoveries by combining transformer‑based models trained on temporal knowledge graphs with large language model semantic knowledge. It identifies novel relationships between scientific concepts that extend beyond the deductive hull of existing knowledge and provides explanations to help scientists assess these predictions. In the biomedical domain, Hakken set a new benchmark for time‑aware multi‑label relation prediction, generated 1.5 million high‑confidence hypotheses about aging, and experimentally confirmed two predictions that revealed previously undocumented interactions relevant to drug discovery.

By Tarek R. Besold, Uchenna Akujuobi, Pablo Sanchez, Alessandra Toniato, Kana Maruyama, Jihun Choi, Samy Badreddine, Frederick Gifford, Daniel Evans-Yamamoto, Sucheendra K. Palaniappan, Miquel Ferrer, Kae Nagano, Iris Rossell, Tom Joy, Hatem ElShazly, Chrysa Iliopoulou, Christoph Wehner, Thiviyan Thanapalasingam, Susana Nunes, Pedro G. Cotovio, Peter Wurman, Peter Stone, Hiroaki Kitano, Michael Spranger