arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 12

Desertification Forecasting in Semi-Arid Regions: Using Deep Learning to Probe the Observability Limits of Land Degradation Dynamics

The study trains a convolutional LSTM on ten annual Earth Observation variables to forecast desertification dynamics in Ceará, Brazil, achieving modest improvements over persistence and capturing 53‑69% of the regional degradation trend. While the model slightly outperforms simple baselines one to four years ahead, it explains only a small fraction of cell‑level variance, indicating that EO data are more reliable for regional trends than for individual pixel predictions. The authors also demonstrate that elevation and EVI channels degrade forecast skill, and use Monte Carlo dropout to quantify uncertainty in future degradation maps.

By Filipe Moura Da Silva, Cl\'aubio Landney Lima Bandeira
arXiv Computer Vision
Oct 1

Cryo-Bench: Benchmarking Foundation Models for Cryosphere Mapping

Cryo-Bench is a new benchmark that evaluates foundation models for cryosphere mapping, comprising six semantic‑segmentation datasets across five cryospheric components (supraglacial debris, glacial lakes, sea ice, calving fronts, and Antarctic ice‑shelf extent). The benchmark includes multispectral, RGB, and SAR observations from under‑represented regions and tests thirteen geo‑foundation models alongside U‑Net and Vision Transformer baselines. Results show that with frozen encoders U‑Net slightly outperforms TerraMind, but the difference is not statistically significant; fine‑tuning with learning‑rate optimization can dramatically improve performance for some models, while in few‑shot scenarios several foundation models retain over 90 % of their full‑label accuracy.

By Saurabh Kaushik, Lalit Maurya, Beth Tellman, Swalpa Kumar Roy, Valerio Marsocci, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jocelyn Chanussot