arXiv:2608. 05454v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic prediction heads in neural networks typically output either a Gaussian mixture or a single conformal region.
By Zhen Zhang, Amr Alanwar
arXiv:2604. 06001v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Efficiently solving the Fokker-Planck equation (FPE) is central to analyzing complex parameterized stochastic systems.
By Xiaolong Wang, Jing Feng, Qi Liu, Chengli Tan, Yuanyuan Liu, Yong Xu
arXiv:2510. 12744v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We develop a unified statistical framework for softmax-gated Gaussian mixture of experts (SGMoE) that addresses three long-standing obstacles in parameter estimation and model selection: (i) non-identifiability of gating parameters up to common translations, (ii) intrinsic gate-expert interactions that induce coupled differential relations in the likelihood, and (iii) the tight numerator-denominator coupling in the softmax-induced conditional density.
By Do Tien Hai, Trung Nguyen Mai, TrungTin Nguyen, Nhat Ho, Binh T. Nguyen, Christopher Drovandi
arXiv:2608. 09071v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forward uncertainty propagation in complex physical systems can induce structured covariance across field-valued outputs.
By Yupei Nie, Lei Wang, Jiasen Liu
arXiv:2606. 13818v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This thesis investigates how Bayesian principles can deepen our understanding of modern deep learning systems.
By Luis A. Ortega
The paper extends Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to handle simulators whose parameter spaces contain both discrete and continuous dimensions. It introduces an inference network that factorizes the joint posterior into discrete and continuous components, using an autoregressive classifier for the discrete part and a generative model for the continuous part, trained jointly with a single simulation-based objective. A diagnostic tool for assessing calibration of the mixed posterior is also proposed, and the method is shown to produce accurate, calibrated posteriors on toy and real scientific simulators.
By Jan Boelts, Cornelius Schr\"oder, Jonas Beck, Jakob H. Macke, Michael Deistler, Daniel Gedon