arXiv:2606. 27282v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time-series forecasting research has been moving steadily toward larger architectures, from specialized transformers to general-purpose foundation models, on the assumption that capacity is what unlocks accuracy.
By Lang Huang, Jinglue Xu, Luke Darlow
The paper presents an empirical benchmark of nine modern deep‑learning models for time‑series forecasting of smart‑meter energy consumption, evaluated on two publicly available datasets. It examines how historical input length, prediction horizon, and model architecture affect accuracy, finding that longer historical context improves performance up to a saturation point and that accuracy declines with longer horizons. The study also compares computational complexity, showing that lightweight architectures achieve similar performance to heavier models, and notes that model choice has limited impact across most demographic and household subgroups.
By Behnaz Kavoosighafi, Maria Eidenskog, Wiktoria Glad, Katerina Vrotsou
arXiv:2603. 15506v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We argue that the current practice of evaluating AI/ML time-series forecasting models, predominantly on benchmarks characterized by strong, persistent periodicities and seasonalities, obscures real progress by overlooking the performance of efficient classical methods.
By Raeid Saqur, Christoph Bergmeir, Blanka Horvath, Daniel Schmidt, Frank Rudzicz, Terry Lyons
The paper presents an empirical benchmark of nine deep learning models for smart meter energy forecasting, evaluating them on two public datasets. It examines how historical input length, prediction horizon, and model architecture affect accuracy, finding that longer historical context improves performance up to a saturation point while accuracy declines with longer horizons. The study also compares computational cost, showing lightweight models achieve similar accuracy to heavier ones, and notes that model choice matters less across most population segments.
arXiv:2602. 02288v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Current time-series forecasting models are primarily based on transformer-style neural networks.
By Zheng Li, Jerry Cheng, Huanying Gu
arXiv:2606. 28670v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce MACROCAST, a lightweight Time Series Foundation Model (TSFM) for real-time macroeconomic forecasting.
By Andrea Carriero, Davide Pettenuzzo, Shubhranshu Shekhar