arXiv:2606. 30037v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In a deep forecasting pipeline for fat-tailed financial returns at short horizons, which matters more - the backbone architecture or the output head?
Summary generated by The Flow from the publisher's feed. The full article lives at arXiv Machine Learning.
arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
arXiv:2607. 03809v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Normalising flows provide a powerful variational family for approximate inference, yet individual architectures often fail to generalise across heterogeneous posterior geometries.
arXiv:2608. 11544v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose CVaR-penalized Generative Particle Algorithm (CVaR-GPA), a robust, tail-agnostic algorithm for fine-tuning generative models to learn heavy-tailed distributions and capture extreme events, requiring no prior knowledge or estimation of the target's tail characteristics.
arXiv:2603. 11308v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a cornerstone of dimensionality reduction, yet its classical formulation relies critically on second-order moments and is therefore fragile in the presence of heavy-tailed data and impulsive noise.
arXiv:2607. 12248v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large pretrained time-series models such as TimesFM are attractive for financial forecasting, but raw directional accuracy is a misleading scoreboard in equity markets.
arXiv:2606. 09104v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) frameworks for portfolio optimization have shown promise for their ability to learn allocation rules dynamically from market data.