arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
By Jiaze Sun, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Ruiyang Ni, Yize Liu, Haonan Chen, Ke-Wei Huang
arXiv:2609.27785v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Financial returns are heavy-tailed, and accurate tail risk estimation is central to portfolio risk management. Modern neural generators sample by pus...
By Ryan M. Engel, Kibaek Lee, Namid Stillman
arXiv:2607. 03809v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Normalising flows provide a powerful variational family for approximate inference, yet individual architectures often fail to generalise across heterogeneous posterior geometries.
By Benjamin Wiriyapong, Oktay Karakus, Can Eyupoglu, Kirill Sidorov
UQ-LOB is a lightweight, encoder‑agnostic module that adds uncertainty quantification to any pretrained limit order book (LOB) encoder. It offers two variants: UQ‑regression, which outputs a calibrated Gaussian over future tick displacement, and UQ‑classification, which outputs a categorical distribution over down/up/stationary. On 5.2 billion LOB events across seven cryptocurrency assets, UQ‑regression achieves near‑nominal 68 % interval coverage, and selecting the top 10 % most confident predictions boosts directional macro F1 by 0.11–0.15 for regression and 0.05–0.11 for classification, reaching F1 scores of 0.88 (down) and 0.83 (up) at a 5‑second horizon.
By Derrick Gilchrist Edward Manoharan, Eljas Linna, Kestutis Baltakys, Hao Dong, Juho Kanniainen
arXiv:2608. 11544v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose CVaR-penalized Generative Particle Algorithm (CVaR-GPA), a robust, tail-agnostic algorithm for fine-tuning generative models to learn heavy-tailed distributions and capture extreme events, requiring no prior knowledge or estimation of the target's tail characteristics.
By Thejani Gamage, Hyemin Gu, Zhizhen Zhang, Ziyu Chen, Markos Katsoulakis, Luc Rey-Bellet
arXiv:2603. 11308v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a cornerstone of dimensionality reduction, yet its classical formulation relies critically on second-order moments and is therefore fragile in the presence of heavy-tailed data and impulsive noise.
By Mario Sayde, Christopher Khater, Jihad Fahs, Ibrahim Abou-Faycal