arXiv Machine Learning By Nathaniel Hendrix, Carl Y. Zhang, Chris Heitzig, Andrew Bazemore, David H. Rehkopf

Geospatial Foundation Models Capture Health-Relevant Dimensions of Place Beyond Conventional Social Risk Indices

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The study evaluates whether geospatial foundation models derived from 2022 satellite data can capture physical aspects of place that conventional area-based social risk indices miss. Using LightGBM on data from 82,646 census tracts, the models moderately predicted certain survey variables and explained up to 54% of the residual variance in 40 health outcomes, notably improving predictions for annual checkups, arthritis, and high blood pressure. The models’ explanatory power increased with larger tract sizes, suggesting they add valuable, health-relevant information beyond traditional social risk measures.

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