arXiv Statistics ML
GeoQ: Geometry-Aware Conditional Quantile Error Estimation for Scientific Surrogate Models
Read the original on arXiv Statistics ML →The Flow has not summarised this story yet — read it at arXiv Statistics ML.
Related stories
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 7
CLEAR: Calibrated Learning for Epistemic and Aleatoric Risk
arXiv:2507. 08150v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling.
arXiv AI
Jun 9
Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model
arXiv:2606. 07771v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Foundation models for astronomical surveys offer powerful learned representations that can be transferred to downstream regression tasks such as galaxy property estimation.
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 2
TRIE: An Evaluation Framework for Stochastic PDE Surrogates
arXiv:2607. 00196v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Many scientific systems exhibit uncertainty from stochastic forcing, unresolved degrees of freedom, or imperfect observations, making reliable surrogate forecasting fundamentally distributional rather than pointwise.
arXiv AI
Jun 9
Prescriptive Scaling Reveals the Evolution of Language Model Capabilities
arXiv:2602. 15327v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning model performance improvements tend to arise from competition and application.
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 23
Predictive Uncertainty for Neural CAE Surrogates
arXiv:2609.25430v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural surrogates can substantially accelerate computer-aided engineering (CAE) workflows, but their use in design requires uncertainty estimates that...
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27
Beyond Point Predictions: Uncertainty-Aware Satellite Poverty Mapping for Public Policy
The paper presents an uncertainty‑aware machine‑learning approach for mapping poverty in Africa using satellite imagery. By combining simultaneous quantile regression with a novel conformal prediction technique, the authors generate statistically guaranteed prediction intervals for neighborhood‑level International Wealth Index estimates, achieving high explanatory power (R² = 0.75) while acknowledging broader uncertainty. They also propose a risk‑controlled aid allocation procedure that leverages both survey data and model predictions, showing in simulations that it can deliver more aid per eligible recipient than alternative strategies.