The paper introduces CloudCast v2, a machine‑learning model that forecasts 12‑hour cloud‑cover from satellite‑derived initial conditions. Trained first on the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis to learn cloud‑evolution dynamics, it is then adapted to real satellite data using conditional flow matching, a generative technique that conditions noise on observed cloud fields and NWP inputs. CloudCast v2 achieves a 10 % reduction in mean absolute error compared to its predecessor and surpasses it in spatial skill after 3–6 hours, extending useful forecasting beyond the typical 1–3‑hour nowcasting window while preserving satellite‑level spatial detail.
By Mikko Partio, Leila Hieta, Ossi Laine
WeatherNext 3 is a new AI‑driven global weather model that improves both spatial and temporal resolution by generating hourly forecasts at 0.1° resolution, matching the best physics‑based models. It incorporates low‑latency geostationary satellite data and learns to predict satellite‑derived precipitation, tropical cyclones, and station observations, enabling 2 m temperature and dewpoint predictions anywhere and anytime. By directly using raw observations instead of relying solely on analysis data, WeatherNext 3 sets a new state‑of‑the‑art for probabilistic medium‑range forecasting skill.
By Stephan Rasp, Boris Babenko, Dominic Masters, Andrew El-Kadi, Samier Merchant, Guy Shalev, Ilan Price, Fred Zyda, Remi Lam, Sasha Shysheya, Matthew Willson, Stratis Markou, Shreya Agrawal, Suhani Vora, Mohammed Alewi Hassen, Sunny Mak, Tom R. Andersson, Megan Bela, Akib Uddin, Nofar Peled Levi, Ben Gaiarin, Ferran Alet, Aaron Bell, Peter Battaglia, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez
The paper introduces Nested‑EAGLE, a 0.25° global weather model with a 6 km refinement over the contiguous United States, designed to merge short‑ and medium‑range forecasts into a single system. It shows lower mean‑squared error for near‑surface and low‑level variables over the U.S. compared to NOAA’s GFS and HRRR, while remaining competitive globally. Although precipitation forecasts are less skillful than HRRR’s deterministic training, Nested‑EAGLE delivers the most accurate storm‑location predictions at longer lead times, with blurred extrema.
By Timothy A. Smith, Mariah Pope, Sergey Frolov, Brett Basarab, Daniel Abdi, Paul Madden, Isidora Jankov
arXiv:2602. 17683v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Short-term forecasting of vegetation dynamics is a key enabler for data-driven decision support in precision agriculture.
By Irene Iele, Giulia Romoli, Daniele Molino, Elena Mulero Ayll\'on, Filippo Ruffini, Paolo Soda, Matteo Tortora
arXiv:2608. 12271v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Global weather reanalyses and forecasts resolve the evolving atmospheric state on coarse grids, but site-specific applications require predictions at arbitrary locations where near-surface conditions also depend on unresolved terrain and land-surface properties.
By Pedro Sousa (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Will Tebbutt (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge), Sadiq Jaffer (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Robin Young (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Anil Madhavapeddy (Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge), Richard E. Turner (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge)
The paradigm of global weather forecasting is rapidly shifting with the emergence of Machine Learning Weather Prediction models (MLWP). While these data-driven architectures demonstrate remarkable global skill, regional benchmarks in the Global South remain scarce, leaving their efficacy in complex, highly convective environments largely unverified.