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arXiv Computer Vision By Estela Monserrat Arriaga Santana (National Autonomous University of Mexico), Julian Rosas Scull (National Autonomous University of Mexico), Eh\'ecatl Sacamch'en N\'u\~nez Rico (National Autonomous University of Mexico), Hugo Jair Escalante (University of Texas at El Paso)

Foresight at the Event Boundary: Evaluating Physical Prediction in Video World Models

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The paper introduces an event‑anchored evaluation protocol for video world models, using 62 free‑fall recordings and 124 clips with detailed release and impact annotations. It finds that while some models (Runway, Veo) can generate release and impact events with high accuracy, they often start them late, and others (Cosmos‑Predict‑2.5, MAGI‑1) rarely produce measurable consequences. A human study shows that people’s predictions align with recorded futures but also reveal ambiguity in plausible continuations, highlighting that physical foresight requires initiating, timing, and realizing motion correctly.

Machine-generated by The Flow from the publisher's headline and feed description — not written or checked by a human. The full article lives at arXiv Computer Vision.

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