arXiv:2608. 14903v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantitative forecasts of frontier artificial intelligence often connect dated targets to trends in benchmark scores, training compute, release time, or expert belief.
By Fabricio F Costa
The paper demonstrates that large language models (LLMs) used for forecasting real‑world events can be manipulated by simply publishing new articles, even without direct access to the model or its retriever. By injecting a small number of targeted news pieces into a common crawl corpus, an adversary can flip over half of the forecast probabilities and significantly degrade forecast accuracy. The study also shows that common defense strategies can be cheaply bypassed, highlighting the vulnerability of probabilistic LLM judgments to information‑supply‑chain attacks.
By Yuan Lu, Yukuan Zhang
The paper introduces Alignment Forecasting, a method for predicting whether fine‑tuning a language model on a given dataset will increase specific alignment failures such as deception or sycophancy. It presents ALIGNMENTFORECASTBENCH, a benchmark of over 5,000 forecasting questions across many models, datasets, and failure modes, and shows that a simple forecasting scaffold using an LLM’s assessment of dataset bias can outperform baseline forecasters. The authors demonstrate that filtering out high‑risk training examples identified by the forecaster can improve alignment in multiple‑choice evaluations, though benefits in open‑ended conversations remain uncertain.
By Chen Yueh-Han, Bruce W. Lee, Ilia Sucholutsky, Tomek Korbak
arXiv:2610.20417v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Audits of large language model (LLM) extraction from full-length documents report severe unreliability, leaving two questions open: what the failures a...
By Jiahong Qian
The paper investigates why misinformation spreads more quickly on engagement‑based platforms by dissecting the recommendation algorithm of X. It identifies an engagement fungibility mechanism that rewards instant reactions (likes, retweets) over thoughtful engagement (replies, quotes), allowing misinformation—which tends to attract instant reactions—to receive more recommendations. The authors validate this mechanism through a simulation on the USC X 2024 election corpus, showing that adjusting metric weights has little effect, while requiring thoughtful engagement before amplification can significantly reduce the credibility exposure gap without harming mainstream content or engagement.
By Pan Li, Shuang Gao
The paper proposes a shift from predictive modeling to descriptive provider behavior profiles for fraud, waste, and abuse (FWA) review. By decomposing billed revenue into provider scale and procedure composition, the authors construct lineage‑aware profiles that capture scale history, code lineage, and clinical family shares. In a large Medicare audit, these simple, interpretable descriptions outperform complex forecasts and improve recall for high‑cost rare events, while an optional semantic factorization adds context without inferring intent.
By Yubin Park, Evan Brociner