arXiv:2406. 12659v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose a scalable variational Bayes method for statistical inference for a single or pre-specified low-dimensional subset of the coordinates of a high-dimensional parameter in sparse linear regression.
By Isma\"el Castillo, Alice L'Huillier, Kolyan Ray, Luke Travis
arXiv:2606. 27269v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliably quantifying predictive uncertainty is difficult for complex, high-dimensional, or misspecified models.
By Graham Gibson, John Tipton, Kellin Rumsey, Natalie Klein
arXiv:2410. 14843v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Vanilla variational inference finds an optimal approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution, but even the exact Bayesian posterior is often not meaningful under model misspecification.
By Jinlin Lai, Antonio Linero, Yuling Yao
arXiv:2607. 02182v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) exhibit remarkable reasoning capabilities, but their task-specific fine-tuning is notoriously plagued by overconfidence, severely hindering trustworthy deployment.
By Jijie Zhang, Zhe Ren, Quan Zhang, Dandan Guo
The paper presents a tuning‑free empirical Bayes framework for Bayesian generalized linear models that uses a novel mean‑field variational inference algorithm. By estimating the prior within the VI procedure and optimizing the posterior mean directly, the method reduces optimization complexity and supports scalable solvers like L‑BFGS and stochastic gradient descent. Applied to sparse logistic regression, the approach shows superior predictive performance compared to existing methods.
By Dongyue Xie, Matthew Stephens
The paper investigates how well Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) approximate Bayesian posterior predictive distributions (PPDs). By decomposing deployment error into prior, context, and amortization components, the authors find that PFNs generally recover the target PPD accurately, but residual amortization errors remain in rare settings, leading to disagreement among independently pretrained models. They demonstrate that Bayesian model averaging can consistently reduce this uncertainty and improve predictions, even matching full-size TabICLv2 models.
By Manuel H\"ulskamp, Julius Kobialka, Emanuel Sommer, Thomas Nagler, David R\"ugamer