arXiv AI By Anouar Imel, Jin Qi

Do "True" and "False" Add Up to One? Complement Consistency in LLM-Agent Opinion Simulations

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The paper investigates whether large language model (LLM) agents maintain complementary consistency when reporting probabilities for a claim and its negation in opinion simulations. Using three small open models (Qwen3‑4B, Llama‑3.2‑3B, Gemma‑3‑4B), the authors find that paired reports often sum to more than one, even on real fact‑checking claims, and that this inconsistency persists across different simulation settings. Averaging a report with its complement restores consistency but only marginally improves predictive accuracy for one model.

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