Diverse Geometries, Frozen Weights: Robust Heterogeneous Treatment-Effect Estimation via Causal Expert Ensembles

The paper introduces GeoACE, a five‑expert framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects that blends a common anchor‑correction estimator with overlap‑aware and outcome‑guided geometries. The ensemble’s task‑level weights are learned from internal validation predictions, frozen before test evaluation, and applied to experts refitted on the full development data. Adding the outcome‑free, overlap‑aware expert O‑Phi‑ACE consistently improves performance across seven benchmarks, achieving the lowest average rank among 11 comparators.

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