arXiv Machine Learning By Giorgio Spadaccini, Marjolein Fokkema, Mark A. van de Wiel

Discovery and inference beyond linearity for epidemiological data by integrating Bayesian regression, tree ensembles and Shapley values

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arXiv:2505. 00571v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine Learning (ML) is gaining popularity in epidemiology and healthcare studies for hypothesis-free discovery of risk and protective factors.

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arXiv Statistics ML
Oct 26

Bayesian Propensity Score Predictive Inference for Extending Trial Findings to Target Populations

The paper introduces Bayesian Propensity Score Predictive Inference (PSPI), an interaction‑based outcome modeling framework that uses Bayesian additive regression trees and natural cubic splines of the sampling propensity score to extend randomized trial results to broader target populations. PSPI includes variants that apply splines to the treatment effect component alone or to both prognostic and treatment effect components, enabling separate regularization of selection‑related variation and explicit extrapolation beyond boundary knots. Simulation studies demonstrate that spline‑based PSPI models outperform competing methods, achieving lower root mean squared errors and near‑nominal coverage, especially under substantial covariate shift, and in the CODIACS Vanguard trial application PSPI estimates larger intervention benefits than the unadjusted trial estimate.

By Jungang Zou, Joseph E. Schwartz, Roderick J. A. Little, Nathalie Moise, Qixuan Chen
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 11

Demystifying Prediction Powered Inference

arXiv:2601. 20819v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning predictions are increasingly used to supplement incomplete or costly-to-measure outcomes in fields such as biomedical research, environmental science, and social science.

By Yilin Song, Dan M. Kluger, Harsh Parikh, Tian Gu