DisCoMBO: Steering Expert-in-the-Loop Black-Box Optimization via Distributional Conformance

DisCoMBO introduces the Distributional Conformance Score (DisCo), a bounded metric that blends the flexibility of Probabilistic Circuits with formal uncertainty quantification for Sequential Model-Based Optimization. DisCo measures model surprise in a [0,1] range, retaining linear-time inference while enabling accurate assessment of external knowledge conformance. The resulting DisCoMBO framework is proven to be a zero-regret algorithm and shows strong performance on benchmarks in AutoML, material optimization, and wind park optimization.

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