arXiv Machine Learning By Yalda Taheri, Mohammad Hassan Heydari, Armon Rasooli, Maryam Amirshahkarami, Mohammad Ebrahim Mahdavi, Hossein Karshenas

CryptoL: Towards Scale Dominance and Physics Constraints Mitigation in Financial Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

CryptoL is a unified framework for forecasting cryptocurrency prices that tackles extreme scale differences, non‑stationary dynamics, and inter‑dependencies among OHLC variables. It normalizes forecasting error in context‑normalized coordinates within the RevIN pipeline, uses channel‑dependent affine transformations to preserve candle‑order relations, and adds scale‑adaptive stabilization and a soft feasibility loss to enforce OHLC inequalities. Experiments on diverse crypto assets show that CryptoL improves accuracy, training stability, and the frequency of financially valid predictions compared to baseline methods.

Machine-generated by The Flow from the publisher's headline and feed description — not written or checked by a human. The full article lives at arXiv Machine Learning.

arXiv AI
Sep 24

Loss Choice or Model Choice? The Role of Forecast Level in Cryptocurrency Volatility Forecasting

The paper investigates how the choice of loss function versus the choice of forecasting model affects cryptocurrency volatility predictions. By comparing seven loss functions and five models, and aligning forecast levels before evaluation, the study finds that after level adjustment model choice dominates performance differences, while loss-induced variations largely disappear. The work clarifies that apparent loss effects in raw comparisons are largely due to forecast level differences rather than intrinsic model performance.

By Andrzej Tokajuk, Jaros{\l}aw A. Chudziak
arXiv AI
Sep 7

PRICE: A Systematic Study of LLM Adaptation Choices for Bitcoin Price Forecasting

The paper introduces PRICE, a systematic framework for adapting Large Language Models to short‑term Bitcoin price forecasting. PRICE combines parameter‑efficient fine‑tuning with LoRA, recursive multi‑step inference, integer‑rounded numerical representation, Context‑Task‑Format prompting, and exact zero‑temperature decoding, all built on a 4‑bit quantized LLaMA‑3 8B model. Ablation studies and comparative evaluations show that each component improves accuracy and reliability, enabling PRICE to achieve the lowest forecasting errors among eight transformer‑based and time‑series foundation models.

By Maryam Fakhari, Mehran Safayani
arXiv AI
Aug 19

MoFE: A Novel Mixture-of-Experts Framework with Fourier Neural Operators for Cryptocurrency Forecasting

MoFE is a deep learning framework that combines Fourier Neural Operators with a Mixture-of-Experts architecture to forecast cryptocurrency prices. It models volatility as a mix of multi-frequency components—including fundamental growth, mining costs, halving events, and market sentiment—using adaptive FNO and convolutional experts. Experiments on Bitcoin data from 2020 to 2025 show MoFE outperforms existing models in short‑term horizons, reducing phase‑lag errors and improving directional accuracy and information coefficient, which translates into higher Sharpe ratios in simulated trading.

By Bowen Liu, Mingming Sun
arXiv AI
Jun 17

LLM-Powered Multi-Agent System for Automated Crypto Portfolio Management

arXiv:2501. 00826v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cryptocurrency portfolio management requires the fusion of heterogeneous multi-modal signals, including structured price and on-chain time series, unstructured news text, and technical indicators, under high-volatility and real-time constraints.

By Yichen Luo, Yebo Feng, Jiahua Xu, Paolo Tasca, Yang Liu