The paper investigates how the choice of loss function versus the choice of forecasting model affects cryptocurrency volatility predictions. By comparing seven loss functions and five models, and aligning forecast levels before evaluation, the study finds that after level adjustment model choice dominates performance differences, while loss-induced variations largely disappear. The work clarifies that apparent loss effects in raw comparisons are largely due to forecast level differences rather than intrinsic model performance.
By Andrzej Tokajuk, Jaros{\l}aw A. Chudziak
The paper introduces PRICE, a systematic framework for adapting Large Language Models to short‑term Bitcoin price forecasting. PRICE combines parameter‑efficient fine‑tuning with LoRA, recursive multi‑step inference, integer‑rounded numerical representation, Context‑Task‑Format prompting, and exact zero‑temperature decoding, all built on a 4‑bit quantized LLaMA‑3 8B model. Ablation studies and comparative evaluations show that each component improves accuracy and reliability, enabling PRICE to achieve the lowest forecasting errors among eight transformer‑based and time‑series foundation models.
By Maryam Fakhari, Mehran Safayani
MoFE is a deep learning framework that combines Fourier Neural Operators with a Mixture-of-Experts architecture to forecast cryptocurrency prices. It models volatility as a mix of multi-frequency components—including fundamental growth, mining costs, halving events, and market sentiment—using adaptive FNO and convolutional experts. Experiments on Bitcoin data from 2020 to 2025 show MoFE outperforms existing models in short‑term horizons, reducing phase‑lag errors and improving directional accuracy and information coefficient, which translates into higher Sharpe ratios in simulated trading.
By Bowen Liu, Mingming Sun
arXiv:2501. 00826v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Cryptocurrency portfolio management requires the fusion of heterogeneous multi-modal signals, including structured price and on-chain time series, unstructured news text, and technical indicators, under high-volatility and real-time constraints.
By Yichen Luo, Yebo Feng, Jiahua Xu, Paolo Tasca, Yang Liu
arXiv:2606. 04574v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This study aims to determine whether the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) as a specialized execution overlay can enhance pair trading in highly volatile cryptocurrency markets.
By Damian Lebied\'z, Robert \'Slepaczuk
arXiv:2606. 03184v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps.
By Jiaze Sun, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Ruiyang Ni, Yize Liu, Haonan Chen, Ke-Wei Huang