arXiv Machine Learning By Tomo Oga, Devesh Shah, Cailum M. K. Stienstra, Gabriel Asher, Antonio H. de O. Fonseca, Niall O'Connor, Michael Widrich

Critical Mass: Structure-Disjoint Splits Drift With the Libraries They Are Built On

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

The paper examines the commonly used structure‑disjoint split for evaluating molecular machine learning models, which relies on single‑linkage clustering with the Maximum Common Edge Subgraph (MCES) distance at a threshold of 10. The authors show that this criterion, originally calibrated on 29,000 molecules, has never been tested on the current public libraries of 227,690 molecules due to its NP‑hard complexity. They propose an optimized algorithm that reduces the number of required integer programs from $2.6 imes10^{10}$ to $1.15 imes10^{7}$, enabling lossless partitioning at scale, and reveal that the resulting graph percolates—over 95 % of the library lies in a single component, making held‑out compounds systematically larger and more complex than training ones. "whyItMatters":"The study highlights that large‑library benchmarks using the traditional split conflate structural novelty with extrapolation to larger, more complex chemistry, potentially misleading assessments of model generalization."

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