Concurrency-Aware Process Model Forecasting with Causal Nets

The paper introduces a new approach to process model forecasting that uses causal nets instead of traditional directly-follows graphs, enabling explicit representation of concurrency. It forecasts time series of relation and binding counts, reconstructs future process models with AND/XOR semantics, and evaluates them using a protocol that handles partial traces for conformance checking. Experiments on four event logs show that the forecasted models achieve conformance close to re‑mined models and outperform static discovery baselines, though filtering infrequent bindings improves metrics at the cost of losing concurrent behavior.

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