Chain-of-Thought Entropy as a Reliability Signal: A Preregistered Reproduction

This study independently reproduces the dissociation reported by Zhao (2026) regarding chain-of-thought entropy in large language models. It confirms that the shape of the entropy trajectory predicts answer correctness, while the total entropy drop magnitude does not, across four open-weight models and two benchmarks (GSM8K and MATH‑500). The reproduction also maps settings where the magnitude signal holds or fails and documents protocol differences not reported in the original work.

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• llms
• benchmarks