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Probabilistic certification of Bayesian neural networks lower-bounds the posterior probability that a model satisfies a verifier-defined safety property. In one-shot federated Bayesian learning, howev...
The paper introduces a ground‑truth framework for disentangling uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components using sample‑conditional pointwise posterior risk. It evaluates current methods, finding that Spectral‑normalized Neural Gaussian Processes and Variational Latent Gaussian Processes best recover the ground‑truth uncertainty, while most methods align more closely with posterior variance and miss predictor bias. The study also explores the entanglement of estimated uncertainties and the impact of modeling choices, providing practical guidance and releasing 13 semi‑synthetic datasets for further validation.
arXiv:2602. 21160v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In safety-critical classification, the cost of failure is often asymmetric, yet Bayesian deep learning summarises epistemic uncertainty with a single scalar, mutual information (MI), that cannot distinguish whether a model's ignorance involves a benign or safety-critical class.
arXiv:2608. 16564v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine learning (ML) is a key technology driving innovation today, but ensuring ML safety remains a major challenge for safety-related applications.
arXiv:2609.13655v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: On evolving graphs, node classifiers must satisfy two key requirements: inductive generalization to newly arriving nodes under distribution shift and c...
Machine learning (ML) is a key technology driving innovation today, but ensuring ML safety remains a major challenge for safety-related applications. A promising idea is to build proven-in-use arguments from field data, e.