arXiv Machine Learning By Fangyuan Lin, Spencer Frei, Victor H. de la Pena

Bounded Difference Concentration for Infinitely Exchangeable Sequences with Applications to AI Benchmark Uncertainty

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arXiv:2606. 17426v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We consider the concentration properties of functions of infinitely exchangeable random variables.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 15

A Complexity Measure for Active Learning in Multi-group Mean Estimation

arXiv:2606. 14690v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study a \emph{max-risk} objective for active learning in a multi-group mean estimation $d$-armed bandits: a learner adaptively allocates a budget of $T$ samples across $d$ groups to minimize the worst-case uncertainty index $\max_{k\in[d]}\sigma_k^2/n_k$, where $\sigma_k$ is the standard deviation of the distribution of arm $d$, and $n_k$ is the number of times arm $d$ is sampled.

By Abdellah Aznag, Rachel Cummings, Adam N. Elmachtoub
arXiv Statistics ML
Sep 4

Low Rank for Rank: Uncertainty-Aware Task-Specific LLM Ranking under Sparse Pairwise Comparisons

The paper introduces a low‑rank framework for ranking large language models (LLMs) on task‑specific benchmarks using sparse pairwise comparisons. By modeling the task‑by‑model ability matrix as low rank, the method shares information across related tasks while preserving task‑specific differences, and it provides uncertainty‑aware ranking through debiased estimators and simultaneous confidence sets. Experiments on synthetic data and the Chatbot Arena benchmark demonstrate improved sample efficiency and tighter, better‑calibrated ranking certificates, especially in the sparse comparison regime typical of real LLM evaluations.

By Jiachun Li, David Simchi-Levi, Will Wei Sun
arXiv AI
Sep 4

LLM Evaluation as Tensor Completion: Low Rank Structure and Semiparametric Efficiency

The paper treats large language model (LLM) evaluation as a tensor completion problem, modeling noisy, sparse, and non‑uniform pairwise human judgments through a low‑rank latent score tensor under Bradley‑Terry‑Luce‑type models. It derives the efficient influence function and semiparametric efficiency bound for smooth functionals of the true tensor, and proposes a one‑step debiased estimator with asymptotic normality. A key innovation is a score‑whitening technique that equalizes local Fisher information, overcoming anisotropy in the information operator and enabling stable inference at optimal sample‑complexity.

By Jiachun Li, David Simchi-Levi, Will Wei Sun
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 20

Diffusion models recover accurate mixture weights despite score function insensitivity

arXiv:2607. 15485v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Score-based generative models exhibit a puzzling behavior: they often appear to cover all modes of a target multimodal distribution and yet may fail to learn the correct relative mode amplitudes, which can be interpreted as mixture weights.

By Andrew Dennehy, Ramchandran Muthukumar, Rebecca Willett, Nisha Chandramoorthy