arXiv Machine Learning By Shivam Shrivastava

Below what training size do deep tabular generators stop beating trivial baselines? A preregistered benchmark on a size ladder of clinical and standard datasets

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The study benchmarks seven deep tabular generative models against trivial baselines across a size ladder of 8 public datasets (200–20,000 rows) and 4 small clinical datasets, totaling 2,220 runs. Using AUROC of classifiers trained on synthetic data and tested on real data, it finds that in 23 of 24 model–dataset pairs no deep model surpasses the best trivial baseline beyond seed noise, and the best baseline wins 40 of 49 evaluated cells. Rankings of deep models are relatively stable below 5,000 rows, but the top two methods often differ by less than seed variation, and rankings on small clinical datasets only moderately align with those on subsampled large datasets.

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