arXiv Machine Learning By Houru Jiang, Zixi Wang, Tengteng Cheng, Xueyi Li, Mingliang Hou, Jiaqi Zheng, Renqiang Luo, Teng Guo, Zitao Liu

An Information-Theoretic Evaluation Framework for Benchmark and Model Diagnosis in Knowledge Tracing

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

The paper introduces an information‑theoretic framework for evaluating knowledge tracing (KT) models that moves beyond aggregate metrics like AUC and accuracy. By applying Context Tree Weighting to item‑response histories, the authors create a causal uncertainty coordinate that separates observable uncertainty from unobserved local irreducible uncertainty (LIU). This approach allows model performance to be assessed across different entropy bands, revealing that modern KT models improve mainly in high‑entropy regions while also highlighting areas where apparent gains may be due to noise.

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