arXiv Machine Learning By Xin Yu, Shuwei Huang, Jicheng Liu, Jielin Tang, Bolin Wang, Yunxiao Zhang, Tian Zhao

A location-invariant estimator of extremal quantile treatment effects for heavy-tailed distributions

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The paper introduces a new estimator for extremal quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in heavy-tailed distributions that remains invariant under common location shifts of the potential outcome distributions. It adapts the Fraga estimator of the extreme value index (EVI) to a causal framework using inverse propensity score weighting and replaces the traditional extrapolation formula with a difference-based scheme that cancels the location parameter. The authors prove consistency, asymptotic normality, and provide a variance estimator, and demonstrate through simulations that the method is location invariant, stable across thresholds, and achieves correct coverage.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 7

A Location-Invariant Estimator of Extremal Quantile Treatment Effects for Heavy-Tailed Distributions

The paper introduces a new estimator for extremal quantile treatment effects (QTEs) that remains invariant under location shifts of heavy‑tailed outcome distributions. It adapts the Fraga estimator of the extreme value index to a causal framework via inverse propensity score weighting and replaces the traditional extrapolation with a difference‑based scheme that cancels the location parameter. The authors prove consistency, asymptotic normality, and provide a variance estimator, with simulations demonstrating location invariance, threshold stability, and correct coverage.

By Xin Yu, Shuwei Huang, Jicheng Liu, Jielin Tang, Bolin Wang, Yunxiao Zhang, Tian Zhao