arXiv Machine Learning By Deifilia Kieckhefen, Juan Pedro Guti\'errez Hermosillo Muriedas, Lars Helge Heyen, Mathis Bode, Iida Hakulinen, Andreas Herten, Chelsea Maria John, Thorsten Kurth, Anni Moisala, Asena Karolin \"Ozdemir, Kaleb Phipps, Oskar Taubert, Arvid Weyrauch, Markus G\"otz, Charlotte Debus

4D Parallelism Unlocks Exascale Bayesian Neural Networks for High-Fidelity Atmospheric Modeling

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BEAST is the first Bayesian Swin Transformer for atmospheric forecasting at 0.25° global resolution, capable of quantifying both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. The authors introduce a 4D‑parallelization scheme with domain‑tensor‑parallelism and a novel uncertainty parallel method, allowing a 2.4‑billion‑parameter model to reach 3.96 EFLOP/s on 20,480 NVIDIA GH200 GPUs. A 700‑million‑parameter BEAST trained on 40 years of data achieves predictive skill comparable to state‑of‑the‑art probabilistic AI models, predicts extreme events with high accuracy, and generates large ensembles 3–4× faster than the current best AI model.

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