arXiv Machine Learning

Parametric and Generative Forecasts of EPEX Day\char45 Ahead Energy Market Curves

arXiv:2601. 20226v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose two methodologies for modelling aggregated supply and demand curves in the EPEX SPOT Day\char45 Ahead market, emphasizing generative models as a way to recover distributional variability.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 21

Time-Aware Prior Fitted Networks for Zero-Shot Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

arXiv:2603. 15802v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In many time series forecasting settings, the target time series is accompanied by exogenous covariates, such as promotions and prices in retail demand; temperature in energy load; calendar and holiday indicators for traffic or sales; and grid load or fuel costs in electricity pricing.

By Andres Potapczynski, Ravi Kiran Selvam, Tatiana Konstantinova, Malcolm Wolff, Kin G. Olivares, Ruijun Ma, Michael W. Mahoney, Andrew Gordon Wilson, Boris N. Oreshkin, Dmitry Efimov
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 5

Electricity price forecasting across Norway's five bidding zones in the post-crisis era

arXiv:2604. 26634v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021-2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models calibrated on historical data.

By My Thi Diem Phan, Trung Tuyen Truong, Hoai Phuong Ha, Dat Thanh Nguyen
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 30

When Prices Double in a Week: Forecasting of Agricultural Volatility in Import-Isolated Markets

arXiv:2606. 29248v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up.

By Ranuga Weerasekara, Heshan Nethmina, Manuja Ranathunga, Vinma Wettasinghe, Dinithi Navodya, Subavarshana Arumugam, Nirasha Munasinghe, Nisansa de Silva, Sandareka Wickramanayake
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 2

ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks

arXiv:2605. 12768v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved.

By Zhizhen Zhang, Hyemin Gu, Benjamin J. Zhang, Daniel Elenius, Michael Tyrrell, Theo J. Bourdais, Houman Owhadi, Markos A. Katsoulakis, Tuhin Sahai