arXiv Statistics ML

Uncertainty and Explainability in Deep Rough Volatility: A Neural Information-Theoretic Posterior Approach

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 10

Asymptotically-informed neural networks for Black-Scholes implied volatility computation

The paper introduces asymptotically-informed neural‑network architectures for computing Black‑Scholes implied volatility. By learning a trainable partition of the price‑log‑moneyness domain and combining specialised local approximations, the models outperform standard feed‑forward networks across a wide range of parameters. The neural‑network outputs also serve as highly accurate initial guesses for a third‑order Householder scheme, enabling near machine‑precision results after only two refinement iterations.

By Samira Amiriyan, Youness Boutaib
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 10

Bayesian Deep Learning for Discrete Choice

arXiv:2505. 18077v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Discrete choice models (DCMs) are used to analyze individual decision-making in contexts such as transportation choices, political elections, and consumer preferences.

By Daniel F. Villarraga, Ricardo A. Daziano
arXiv Machine Learning
1d ago

A Ground-Truth Framework for Uncertainty Disentanglement with Posterior Risk

The paper introduces a ground‑truth framework for disentangling uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components using sample‑conditional pointwise posterior risk. It evaluates current methods, finding that Spectral‑normalized Neural Gaussian Processes and Variational Latent Gaussian Processes best recover the ground‑truth uncertainty, while most methods align more closely with posterior variance and miss predictor bias. The study also explores the entanglement of estimated uncertainties and the impact of modeling choices, providing practical guidance and releasing 13 semi‑synthetic datasets for further validation.

By Frieder Wizgall, Georg Tirpitz, Moritz Seiler, Kerstin Ritter, B\'alint Mucs\'anyi