arXiv Computation and Language

Calibrated Decisions at Scale: Converting Police Crash Narratives into Probabilistic Crash Variables with a System One Model (Jev)

arXiv AI
Sep 23

Toward Auditable and Calibrated AI for Dementia-Related Crash Severity Prediction: A Selective Deferral Framework to Support Human Review

The paper presents a decision‑aware framework for predicting dementia‑related crash severity that emphasizes auditability and selective deferral. Using 4,781 Texas crash records, the authors evaluate several models—including structured, narrative, fusion, calibrated fusion, BERT‑family, and local large‑language‑model baselines—under a stratified 70/15/15 split. The leakage‑controlled Gemma model achieves the highest macro‑F1 of 0.545, while a calibrated fusion model reaches 0.522 macro‑F1 with an expected calibration error of 0.033; selective deferral further improves performance, raising macro‑F1 to 0.573 at 70% coverage and reducing severity cost to 0.577.

By Gaurab Chhetri, Anika Baitullah, Subasish Das
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Sep 2

VeriPhy: Agentic Physical Reasoning for World Model Evaluation and Refinement

VeriPhy is an auditable physical‑verification system that evaluates generated video by compiling prompts into typed physical obligations and a statically validated execution plan before any frames are observed. During execution, it gates calls to frozen low‑level experts (e.g., segmentation, tracking, counting, depth, OCR, audio‑event detection) and returns provenance‑carrying evidence records, which are mapped to a three‑valued state (supported, contradicted, unknown) with full traceability. On a 1,500‑clip corpus of human‑annotated flaw records, VeriPhy accounts for 228 failures out of 304, outperforming a published question‑decomposition evaluator that accounts for 164, while also providing auditable evidence for each verdict.

arXiv Computer Vision
Sep 4

VeriPhy: Agentic Physical Reasoning for World Model Evaluation and Refinement

VeriPhy is an auditable physical‑verification system that transforms a text prompt into typed physical obligations and a statically validated execution plan before any video frames are generated. During execution, it gates calls to frozen low‑level experts (segmentation, tracking, counting, depth, OCR, audio‑event detection, etc.) and records provenance‑carrying evidence for each action. The system maps these records to a three‑valued state—supported, contradicted, or unknown—providing traceable verdicts that can be used to refine generation models.

By Wenzhuo Xu, Yuchen Zhu, Chongjian Ge, Xuan Shen, Jing Shi, Jason Kuen, Yongxin Chen, Molei Tao, Christopher McComb, Noelia Grande Guti\'errez, Jiuxiang Gu
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 17

A Calibrated Instrument for Measuring How Inference Optimizations Affect Output Quality

The paper introduces a calibrated instrument for rigorously measuring how inference optimizations—such as quantization, early‑exit, and speculative decoding—affect the output quality of large language models. It uses a formally calibrated LLM judge that verifies no systematic bias between statistically equivalent outputs and includes a null condition to ensure measured differences are zero. Applying this method, the authors find that a 4‑bit model is indistinguishable from its 16‑bit counterpart, while 3‑bit quantization and early‑exit techniques incur measurable quality losses that vary by language and task, and that token‑certainty‑based acceptance rules cannot reliably identify impactful errors.

By Jerry Kaplan