arXiv AI

Training-Free Continual Learning for Multimodal Forecasting via Prompt Evolution

The paper proposes a training‑free continual learning approach for multimodal time‑series forecasting by evolving a textual guidance block that is appended to a frozen large language model’s prompt. On a benchmark combining weekly search indices, daily currencies, and daily commodities with web‑retrieved news, the evolved 900‑word guidance outperforms existing time‑series foundation models and transfers to newer models without loss, while requiring only monetary cost rather than GPU days. The authors also show that compiling the guidance into executable code recovers most of the gain deterministically and that the advantage grows at short horizons, with news text being distilled into policy during learning.

arXiv AI
Jul 23

Challenges of Explainability in Continual Learning for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2607. 19382v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning models have shown strong potential for time series forecasting, yet their deployment in real-world environmental monitoring remains challenging due to non-stationary dynamics and limited explainability.

By Quentin Besnard (RFAI), Emmanuel Doumard (BDTLN), Nicolas Labroche (LIFAT, BDTLN), Nicolas Ragot (RFAI), Nicolas Ringuet (BDTLN)
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 3

Do Your Own Research: Learning to Forecast by Learning to Search

The paper introduces an agentic forecasting environment built on 2,100+ resolved Polymarket questions, where a language model (Qwen3.5-35B-A3B) learns to gather evidence during rollout via web search, page reading, and financial time series, all filtered to avoid post‑cutoff leaks. Training with single‑epoch GRPO and a Brier‑score reward improves calibration by 30‑40% and reduces search attempts, while the trained policy outperforms four frontier models in evidence‑based forecasting, achieving lower soft‑Brier scores at roughly 5% of the inference cost. The authors release the environment, dataset, and per‑rollout records as a reusable harness for temporal forecasting agents.

By Yusuf Afifi, Artur Kiulian, Anton Polishko, Mykola Khandoga, Hamudi Naanaa, Alina Krasnobrizha