arXiv AI

State Transport Routing for Short-horizon Adaptation in Multi-horizon Photovoltaic Forecasting

arXiv AI

Jul 10

PARA-PV: Physics-Aware Retrieval-Augmented PV Prediction Based on Frozen Foundation Model and Distribution Shift Correction

arXiv:2607. 08079v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for reliable grid dispatch and renewable energy integration, yet it remains challenging because PV generation is jointly shaped by weather variability, day-night transitions, regime-dependent dynamics, and strict physical constraints.

By Hang Fan, Weican Liu, Ying Lu, Dunnan Liu, Long Cheng, Wei Wei

rag

arXiv AI

Sep 15

Horizon-specific Expert Fusion for Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

The paper presents a hierarchical ensemble for short‑term photovoltaic power forecasting that fuses temporal neural models, historical analogs, state climatology, and gradient‑boosted trees with horizon‑specific convex weights. Solar geometry and numerical weather forecasts provide expected generation conditions, while a calibration step corrects recent bias using historical forecast errors. Evaluated on PVDAQ and GEFCom2014 data, the ensemble reduces mean absolute error by up to 6% compared to strong individual models, though its advantage varies with dataset and horizon.

By Xu Yuqing, Zhou Liguo, Sun Ze, Yu Lei, Jiang Mingming

fine-tuning safety

arXiv Machine Learning

Aug 4

An AI-Based Decision-Support Pipeline for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Forecasting

arXiv:2608. 02088v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable photovoltaic (PV) forecasts are needed for low-carbon energy systems, but newly deployed sites often have short, imperfect records.

By Fariba Dehghan, Sebastian Stein, Vahid Yazdanpanah, Stephanie Gauthier, Masood Nazari

safety

Hugging Face Trending Papers

Jul 14

Robustness of Deep Learning Models for PV Power Forecasting under NWP Forecast Errors: A Spatiotemporal and Physically Interpretable Analysis

Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs. In photovoltaic (PV) forecasting, this requirement is especially challenging because numerical weather prediction (NWP) errors are temporally correlated, state dependent, and physically coupled across variables.

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 15

Robustness of Deep Learning Models for PV Power Forecasting under NWP Forecast Errors: A Spatiotemporal and Physically Interpretable Analysis

arXiv:2607. 12954v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs.

By Dandan Chen, Yan Zhao, Xuepeng Chen

arXiv Machine Learning

Aug 13

FarSky: Task-Aware Latent-Space Coupling for Generative Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting

arXiv:2608. 11254v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate solar irradiance forecasting is essential for the reliable integration of photovoltaic power into modern electricity grids.

By Yann Fabel, Bijan Nouri, Milon Miah, Niklas Blum, Luis F. Zarzalejo, Julia Kowalski, Robert Pitz-Paal

diffusion benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 13

GatedLinear: Adaptive Routing of Complementary Linear Bases for Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2607. 09537v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series forecasting requires models to capture diverse, often mutually exclusive, temporal dynamics, from smooth trend continuation to nonstationary drift and strict phase-aligned recurrence.

By Qitai Tan, Ruiwen Gu, Yilin Su, Mo Li, Xu Lin, Xiao-Ping Zhang

benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Jul 21

Distributed solar generation forecasting using attention-based deep neural networks for cloud movement prediction

arXiv:2411. 10921v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate forecasts of distributed solar generation are necessary to maintain grid stability amid the increased uptake of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems.

By Maneesha Perera, Julian De Hoog, Kasun Bandara, Hansani Weeratunge, Saman Halgamuge

computer-vision

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 8

Time series Foundation Models based on Physics-Informed Synthetic Histories for Cold-Start Photovoltaic Forecasting

arXiv:2606. 07457v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: At commissioning time, Photovoltaic (PV) operators must forecast production before target-site observations are available, limiting the direct use of standard supervised forecasters.

By Lorenzo Longarini, Alessandro Rongoni, Simone Silenzi, Emanuele Frontoni, Riccardo Rosati

arXiv Machine Learning

Jun 3

Enhanced Renewable Energy Forecasting using Context-Aware Conformal Prediction

arXiv:2510. 15780v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used to support renewable energy forecasting and grid operations.

By Alireza Moradi, Mathieu Tanneau, Reza Zandehshahvar, Pascal Van Hentenryck

arXiv AI

Sep 10

Assessing Covariate-Informed Grid Load Forecasting with a Time-Series Foundation Model

arXiv:2609.06656v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern power systems are growing increasingly complex as they integrate diverse generation sources to meet rising demand, making accurate load foreca...

By Varsha Pendyala, Yiwei Fu, Weizhong Yan, Nurali Virani

fine-tuning benchmarks

arXiv Machine Learning

Aug 10

Beyond Myopic World Models: Long-Horizon End-to-End Training for Direct Future Prediction

arXiv:2608. 07420v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: World models are expected to support imagination over extended temporal horizons, yet most are still trained through local few-step prediction objectives and deployed by recursively rolling out their own predictions.

By Xinyi Li, Zaishuo Xia, Chenjie Hao, Yubei Chen

rag benchmarks

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