arXiv AI

Modeling Memory-Dependent Reliability of LLMs: A Hidden Markov Model

arXiv:2607. 22951v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliability assessment of large language models (LLMs) seeks to estimate the probability that a model produces correct responses under a specified operational profile.

Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jun 22

The Origins of Stochasticity: Comprehensive Investigations on Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled sophisticated reasoning and content generation, yet their inherent stochasticity poses significant challenges for ensuring predictive credibility. While traditional uncertainty taxonomy paradigms, such as the dichotomy of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, provide conceptual foundations, they often fail to capture the multi-component and multi-stage nature of LLM generation and struggle to evaluate the effectiveness of various Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods.

arXiv Machine Learning
4d ago

Quantifying Behavioral Tails in Black-Box Language Models

The paper introduces RareTrap, a framework that estimates the probability of severe behaviors in black‑box large language models. RareTrap constructs a geometry‑aware mapping from a low‑dimensional latent space into token‑embedding space using a surrogate LLM, creating an explicit and reproducible distribution over input prompts. By applying a response‑level performance function and sequential rare‑event simulation, RareTrap concentrates evaluations on increasingly severe behaviors while preserving probability, enabling estimation of such behaviors with as few as 200 evaluations across multiple open‑weight and frontier models.

By Elsayed Eshra, Ali Al-Lawati, Dongwon Lee, Suhang Wang
arXiv AI
Aug 18

QUMem: Personalized Memory for Query-Conditioned User-State Inference in LLM Agents

arXiv:2608. 16168v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly use external memory systems to support personalization by drawing on long and evolving interaction histories, in which user preferences may be distributed across time, change with context, and conflict with earlier evidence.

By Heng Wang, Yifei Li, Lingling Zhang, Pengyu Li, Xinyu Che, Xinyu Zhang, Zesheng Yang